I’ll play Ayton’s assists under at any plus number.ĭejounte Murray, under 8.5 assists (-115)ĭejounte Murray is finally having that breakout season we’ve been waiting on for the San Antonio Spurs. Players typically convert about half of their potential assists, and obviously he’d need to convert “both” of his 2.3 potential assists to hit this over. He’s also averaging just 2.3 potential assists, per NBA Advanced Stats. Ayton has more games with zero assists than with three or more each of the last two seasons, so that shows a clear ceiling on his passing. It’s not a huge edge, but it’s in our favor, and we’re getting plus juice that implies only a 47% hit rate.ĭig a little deeper and you see the edge more clearly. Last season, he had zero or one assist in 40 of 69 games, hitting this under 58% of the time. By extension, it’s meant less times passing out of the post too, and thus fewer assist opportunities.Īyton has under 1.5 assists in nine of 16 games this year, hitting this under 56% of the time. That has meant less time dumping the ball into Ayton into the post and more times using the big man as a play finisher. It’s not a coincidence that that coincides with the arrival of the Point God, Chris Paul. Ayton had an assist every 17.4 minutes his first two seasons in the NBA, but that’s dropped to one dime every 21.8 minutes the past two seasons. This is a pretty niche prop, but we’ll give it a shot. Deandre Ayton was terrific for stretches of that one on both ends of the court, but he has been inconsistent in his career. This is a bit of a letdown spot for the Suns, coming off their big win over the Warriors that pushed them to a franchise record 17-game winning streak. I’ll play to -130.Īfter all, it’s December now … must be Holiday season.ĭeandre Ayton, under 1.5 assists (+115) Pistons at Suns We’re projecting Jrue at 18.0 points, giving this a 17% edge in our favor. It won’t be easy tonight in Toronto, especially with the Bucks playing yesterday, but that’s probably good news for us so this doesn’t turn into a blowout, as hot as Milwaukee has been. He’s gone over in eight of 15 starts this season (53%), a bit of a dip, but remember, that includes a few limited games - and even then, it’s still in our favor. Holiday went over 14.5 points in 41 of his 56 starts last year (73%). He’s scoring 18.0 PPG over the last five games with four times over this number in that stretch. Jrue isn’t broken - he just took a few weeks to get his season going. Take them out and he moves to 15.0 PPG and 6.6 APG in 33 MPG, basically right back at last year’s production minus a bucket a game on slightly cold shooting. Obviously those three low-minute games are going to hurt those averages. After missing a game, he was limited again versus the Spurs and then sat out five games before coming off the bench for a limited spot in his return. Holiday played the season opener but left injured and played under 18 minutes. The first nine games of the season were basically lost for Holiday after a long, grueling summer that included an NBA title run and then an Olympic gold medal run in Tokyo that began just days later. The 5.9 dimes are his lowest APG since his age-21 season way back in 2011-12.īut those numbers are selling Holiday short. That 14.6 is his lowest PPG average since the 2013-14 season. Holiday is averaging 14.6 points and 5.9 assists per game for the defending champs. It’s been a slow start to the season for Jrue Holiday. Thursday NBA Props Jrue Holiday, over 14.5 points (-110) We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.īelow, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props. Only a half unit for me on these plays - you can’t win +10 units everyday, after all. It’s a much leaner slate tonight, so we’ll need to be much more cautious. Nice little night of NBA props at WE BACK. We hit two Evan Mobley props at +112 and +130 and did even better with a pair of Daniel Gafford hits at +190 and +450. We went 5-0 on picks in this column, and it wasn’t just freebies. We’re still flying high in the NBA Props world after our best day of the season yesterday.
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